I’ve been thinking about this for a while and I’ve come to the conclusion that the next big thing in desktop computing is syncing. Now, a lot of this is hyperbole, but I think we’re finally getting to a stage where redundancy is a concept that even common users are starting to get. Eventually, syncing will be a common feature in most data-based desktop applications.

I have to acknowledge now that we’re already on this trend. It’s not particularly hard to see where we’re going now that we’re on the road. It’s just something that I haven’t heard talked about as informally as it probably should be. Sure, everyone talks about everything being “in the cloud.” I readily believe that the whole “Web 2.0” and “cloud computer” is all crap. Web 2.0 happened years prior when people started to realize that pages weren’t static representations for documents but rather interfaces for web applications. That’s right, Web2.0 started with all of those damnable guest books of the mid-90s. Let’s face it, we’re still just dealing with prettier versions of database font-ends, but at least we’re realizing the potential.

But the whole notion of the “cloud” is also a bunch of marketing smoke that I’m tired of. Sometime between Flickr and YouTube, web developers started to realize that bandwidth doesn’t matter anymore. FTP had a good run, but it’s time to start transferring data in our own way. We can put it on the high-priced servers with redundant hardware that’s probably a lot more reliable than our USB backup drives at home. Better yet, we can share with friends if we want. The “cloud” is basically what some people have been doing for years and years only applied to a model that lowers the barrier to entry (hello browser-based uploads) and (mostly) eliminates any bandwidth considerations. It’s marketing bullocks.

So, yeah, I’ve had 15-20 years to watch this trend happen. It certainly didn’t happen overnight. But we are reaching a certain kind of collective consciousness. More and more of us are being raised with computers in our schools if not in our homes. We’re more and more accustomed to seeing and using computers at the workplace. We’re even holding mini-computers in our hands. In a very short time (by generational measurements), the standard has gone from consumers not owning any computers, to consumers owning one computer, to consumers owning multiple computers. This is about to be a crisis.

As an aside, I want to note that I recognize that this conversation is restricted only to a particular subset of the American population. The majority of Americans probably do not own a computer or work in an environment in which they are expected to use a computer. In either case, the issue of syncing data is moot. I do see it as a trend as computers become even more ubiquitous in our homes and workplaces as well as on our persons.

The collective conscious that we’re reaching the gradual realization that it’s a pain in the ass to have all of our data in front of us when we need it. With multiple computers, we turn to kludges such as copying files onto a disk or emailing data. Sometimes we get clever and keep things in a networked drive, but then our data lives on the network and not with us. Furthermore, this completely unravels when we lose our internet connection.

Apple has seen this coming. iSync and MobileMe attempt to get syncing right. It tries to be invisible and behind the scenes. I’ve never actually had it work correctly, though. It works fine for syncing between my Mac and my iPod Touch, but it has never worked 100% for another computer. It often creates a much larger headache of errors and crashiness. Still, I have to give Apple credit. If there’s a future for syncing on the Mac, it’s in developer buy-in to MobileMe syncing. Unfortunately, MobileMe is still an absurdly overpriced collection of web applications that no one really wants.

“But Grayson”, you might say, “so many developers are providing their own web services to handle syncing.” Sure. And NetNewsWire briefly had its own syncing service before moving to Google Reader. By all accounts, Google Reader syncing is better than NNW previously offered, and good for NNW. I think NNW is pretty much a canonical example here. How many developers have the time to write their own syncing protocol and implement a full-featured web application in addition to their desktop app? Then there are the complexities of scaling a web application as the user load increases, two applications to update and migrate data when there’s a change to the data store, and much more. That type of complexity makes it difficult for any independent software provider to provide solid, in-app syncing without a rather sizable and knowledgable staff. I won’t even start on how complex a good sync engine is.

Apple’s SyncServices is deceptively simple. It isn’t simple but it looks simple. It lets ordinary developers like me think: “I can write a sync services plugin. Then users can sync their data quickly and easily. I’ll be a hero!” Then I realize how much more about syncing and Apple’s implementation that I need to learn. The real point is that it’s a good thing to get developers to buy in (which is a good thing for consumers, too).

In the end, consumers will start needing a better way to have their information available at all times. Currently, the notion of “Web2.0” “cloud applications” is popular. If everyone is on the ‘net, then it’s available from every computer. I think is so popular only because real syncing hasn’t caught on. If there was an application that provided adequate syncing between two or more computers in addition to real interoperability with a handheld device and a functional web application, we’d all use it. I assume this is how something like Evernote got so popular so quickly (note: I don’t use Evernote).

I see the sync revolution happening over the same accellerated yet gradual pace of everything else on computers. A few power users want syncing. A developer obliges. Then syncing is a huge selling point. Eventually syncing could become a de facto feature. Apps are just expected to sync. When they don’t sync, a small but vocal group of users complain every chance they get (see: Applescript implementation, and I recognize that I’m in that group). Once the syncing revolution starts, there’ll be no turning back. We need access to all of our information at every workstation that we find ourselves. We’re increasingly becoming computing nomads. We need to make a change and nearly immediately see it reflected when we leave our desks and check our iPods. We need to know that a change to document made at work will be made when we get home. We would like to start writing an email message in one location and pick it up at a later one (thank you, IMAP) and we hate the hoops we have to jump through just to keep our digital music collection in multiple locations.

This all needs to happen without wires, too. We need to stop tossing our Palm Pilots into docks. The iPhone does a pretty good job with some data, but I hate having to connect to the Mac just to get application updates. Why I can’t I just mark them as downloadable and have the iPhone install them itself? Once we get past these physical limitations and start embracing our lives roaming from computer to computer (while holding a computer in between), we’ll start demanding syncing. It’s an annoyance that will consume us because it picks at us every day. It’s the next practical solution that we’ll need to resolve. It’s a minor thing now, but it’s going to be huge in a few short years.